Sunday, April 30, 2023

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Video edited on Kapwing

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Tuesday, April 25, 2023

ON THE BEACH : DOUBLE DIGIT OCEAN HEAT ANOMALIES

 

EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA
Reports local ocean temperature anomalies on America's East Coast in March were up to 13.8 C higher than the 1981-2011 average.
As can be seen above, onshore SST anomalies of  > 5 C  continue. 

Sunday, April 23, 2023

                           CUE THE NEW CHRISTY MINSTRELS

 

A NOAA-STAR 

dataset is born…

What does a new entrant in the lower troposphere satellite record stakes really imply?

At the beginning of the year, we noted that the NOAA-STAR group had produced a new version (v5.0) of their MSU TMT satellite retrievals which was quite a radical departure from the previous version (4.1). It turns out that v5 has a notable lower trend than v4.1, which had the highest trend among the UAH and RSS retrievals. The paper describing the new version (Zou et al., 2023) came out in March, and with it the availability of not only updated TMT and TLS records (which had existed in the version 4.1), but also a new TLT (Temperature of the Lower Troposphere) record (from 1981 to present). The updated TMT series was featured in the model data comparison already, but we haven’t yet shown the new TLT data in context. 

Readers will recall that the TLT product is nominally a weighted average of atmospheric temperature anomalies from the surface up to 5km or so. The weighting varies a little between land and ocean, and as a function of topography or surface type (some model-observation comparisons take this into account, but a global uniform weighting is often good enough). 

The nature of the measurement, using off-nadir scans of the instrument made the retrieval more noisy than other MSU prodcuts, and it has taken time to deal with those issues. Some long-timers might even recall the rather tumultuous history, involving over-confident claims of precision, the discovery of systematic biases because of orbital decay, corrections, independent replication and more errors, more corrections, etc. 

[ E.G., Spencer & Christy's evangelical 1990 Science  Editorial :

"Virtually everyone, children included, is  concerned about global climate change and especially about the greenhouse effect. They have learned of increases in carbon dioxide. They have been told repeatedly that temperatures will increase 9'F. Political pressure is mounting to take action regardless of cost, and to take action now.

But how good is the evidence, and how likely is substantial global warming? When might it happen?

 

Applying the customary standards of scientific inquiry, one must conclude that there has been more hype than solid facts ...

 

Modeling of global climate is largely concentrated on examining effects of  doubling the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases... the answers they get are functions of the models they employ."]

This history should temper any claims now that the structural uncertainty has finally been beaten down, but it’s worth digging in a little deeper to see where it comes in.


Friday, April 21, 2023

      ELECTION 2032: THIS IS YOUR CHATBOT ON BEAN CURD

Dear Chat GPT:

It's 2030. Rising awareness of the Climate Crisis and acceptance of vegan  regimes have become crucial growth drivers for the tofu market. 
After the COVID-19 take-out boom, Fast Tofu  grew to rival meat-era  McDonald's in ubiquity and cultural impact

The ability to store tofu products for long periods without greenhouse gas refrigerants led anti-meat-&-refrigeration activists to add bean curd riders to anti gas stove & barbecue legislation, as fossil fuel advertising bans spread across the nation from Portland to Cambridge and the CJR/Covering Climate Now coalition merged with the nationwide  Tofu advertising campiagn organized by PETA, and funded by  the Seven Soy Sisters:

  • Amy's Kitchen, Cargil, Dean Foods, Eden Foods, Goop, Hain, Celestial Group and  Vitasoy  
Given how political coalitions transformed media coverage  of the Climate crisis, and the growth of the Congressional vegan Caucus to include Cory Booker, Adam Schiff and  Tulsi Gabard, describe how Bill Moyers and John Podesta might draft a Vegan Meat Crisis Playbook for the 2032  Presidential election

CHAT GPT:

The Vegan Playbook for the 2032 Presidential election could include the following actions:

Promote plant-based diets: 
The playbook may recommend plant-based diets by raising awareness of  the benefits of reducing meat consumption through advertising campaigns and educational programs.

Ban meat in public institutions, schools and hospitals:
This could be done to promote healthier eating habits and reduce the environmental impact of animal agriculture.

Increase tofu production:
Incentivize the production of tofu and other plant-based proteins. This could include Federal subsidies or tax breaks for soybean farmers, tofu producers, vegan restaurants and businesses that serve plant-based meals. 

Promote food recycling: 
Encourage people to compost their food waste instead of throwing it away. This could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainable agriculture.

Ban gas stoves and barbecues:
In homes and restaurants to reduce the environmental impact of cooking with gas and promote electric cooking alternatives.
Antimeat activists who prioritize direct action may think acts of civil disobedience, such as the destruction of interstate meat transportation infrastructure, are necessary to force action and bring about change.
They may  want the Vegan Playbook to cite Andreas Malm's work, or reference tactics such as pipeline destruction.
They may argue that the playbook does not go far enough in promoting radical change and may see it as a compromise with the status quo.
Bill Moyers is a veteran journalist and public television personality known for his progressive views on a variety of topics, including the environment and climate change. John Podesta is a seasoned political operative who is also a vocal advocate for climate action and has been involved in several organizations focused on environmental issues, including the Center for American Progress.

A Moyers/Podesta Meat Crisis Playbook for the 2032 Presidential campaign election might start by analyzing the current state of the meat industry and the environmental impact of meat production to make the case that reducing meat consumption is critical to mitigating climate change and protecting the environment. They might also draw on the success of those focused on the climate crisis to identify effective messaging and strategies for reaching voters.

It could also suggest strategies for engaging with different groups of voters, such as working with influential celebrities and social media influencers to promote plant-based diets, or partnering with community organizations to educate people on the benefits of reducing meat consumption.

Overall, a 2032 Vegan Meat Crisis Playbook could aim to build a coalition of support for plant-based meat alternatives to make reducing meat consumption a mainstream political issue. 

By leveraging the expertise and experience of Bill Moyers and John Podesta, the playbook could help shape the conversation around the meat industry and its impact on the environment, and potentially influence policy decisions and public opinion in the years to come.
The final version of the playbook may include a range of policies and initiatives designed to  reduce the environmental impact of animal agriculture


Thursday, April 20, 2023

               HOW TO STOP WORRYING AND SET OFF THE BOMB

 

THE NATION

The First Great Action Movie About Climate Justice?

A conversation with Daniel Goldhaber about adapting Andreas Malm’s How to Blow Up a Pipeline into a politically-minded thriller


SAM RUSSEK: It took just 19 months to go from the conception of the idea for this movie to its premiere in Toronto last year, right?

DANIEL GOLDHABER: 

Climate change is urgent. We’re on a timeline of years or months, not decades, to solve this problem.

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

DOES AGROBUSINESS PAY CAPITAL GAINS ON MAGGOTS?

From Anthropocene Issue 5

IF YOU ARE WHAT YOU EAT,
 NEVER ASK WHAT YOU EAT ATE

 

Monday, April 17, 2023

                                   GRAVITY HAPPENS

As the  Greenland ice cap increased in mass during the Little Ice Age, the sea drew near as the ice grew thick,.

While global average sea level fell due to water displacement from oceans to ice caps between 1400 and 1800 AD, the change in local gravity paradoxically raised  coastal sea level by as much as 3 meters, inundating coastal farms and settlements.



Sea-level rise in Southwest Greenland as a contributor to Viking abandonment

Edited by Sarah Woodroffe, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom; received June 10, 2022; accepted 

PNAS    

Vikings occupied Greenland from 985 CE to the mid-15th century… 
Occupation coincided with a transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age and Southern Greenland Ice Sheet advance. We demonstrate using geophysical modeling that this advance would have (counterintuitively) driven local sea-level rise of ~3 m (when combined with a long-term regional trend) and inundation of 204 km2
This largely overlooked process led to the abandonment of some sites and pervasive flooding. Progressive sea-level rise impacted the entire settlement and may have acted in tandem with social and environmental factors to drive Viking abandonment of Greenland.

Abstract

The first records of Greenland Vikings date to 985 CE. Archaeological evidence yields insight into how Vikings lived, yet drivers of their disappearance in the 15th century remain enigmatic. Research suggests a combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and the climatic shift from the Medieval Warm Period (~900 to 1250 CE) to the Little Ice Age (~1250 to 1900 CE) may have forced them to abandon Greenland. Glacial geomorphology and paleoclimate research suggest that the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet readvanced during Viking occupation, peaking in the Little Ice Age. Counterintuitively, the readvance caused sea-level rise near the ice margin due to increased gravitational attraction toward the ice sheet and crustal subsidence. We estimate ice growth in Southwestern Greenland using geomorphological indicators and lake core data from previous literature. We calculate the effect of ice growth on regional sea level by applying our ice history to a geophysical model of sea level with a resolution of ~1 km across Southwestern Greenland and compare the results to archaeological evidence. The results indicate that sea level rose up to ~3.3 m outside the glaciation zone during Viking settlement, producing shoreline retreat of hundreds of meters. Sea-level rise was progressive and encompassed the entire Eastern Settlement. Moreover, pervasive flooding would have forced abandonment of many coastal sites. These processes likely contributed to the suite of vulnerabilities that led to Viking abandonment of Greenland. Sea-level change thus represents an integral, missing element of the Viking story.