Wednesday, July 12, 2017

  THE END OF THE WORLD  ISN'T  WHAT  IT  USED  TO  BE

        CURRENT  MAGAZINE COVERS  AND  1983  DUST JACKETS  EXCEPTED :
 NOW  AS  IN  1983 , WHO NEEDS A  COMPUTER MODEL
WHEN  PORTER-NOVELLI 'S  CREATIVE DEPARTMENT 
CAN  AIR  BRUSH  YOUR  APOCALYPSE TO  ORDER?


"Since  this  New York Magazine  article 
" The Uninhabitable Earth") is getting so much play this morning, I figured I should comment on it, especially as I was  interviewed  by  the  author  ( though  not  quoted or mentioned).
I have to say that I am not a fan of this sort of doomist framing. It is important to be up front about the risks of unmitigated climate change, and I frequently criticize those who understate the risks. But there is also a danger in overstating the science in a way that presents the problem as unsolvable, and feeds a sense of doom, inevitability and hopelessness. 
The article argues that climate change will render the Earth uninhabitable by the end of this century. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The article fails to produce it.
The article paints an overly bleak picture by overstating some of the science. It exaggerates  for example, the near-term threat of climate "feedbacks" involving the release of frozen methane (the science on this is much more nuanced and doesn't support the notion of a game-changing, planet-melting methane bomb..."


Michael E. Mann