CANDIDATE NOW CONSIDERING 2156 & 2272 PRIMARIES
Temporal Scaling of Carbon Emission and Accumulation Rates: Modern Anthropogenic Emissions Compared to Estimates of PETM Onset Accumulation
The Paleocene‐Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) was caused by a massive release of carbon to the atmosphere. This is a benchmark global greenhouse warming event that raised temperatures to their warmest since extinction of the dinosaurs.
Rates of carbon emission today can be compared to those during onset of the PETM in two ways: (1) projection of long‐term PETM rates for comparison on an annual time scale and (2) projection of short‐term modern rates for comparison on a PETM time scale. Both require temporal scaling and extrapolation for comparison on the same time scale. PETM rates are few and projection to a short time scale is poorly constrained.
Modern rates are many, and projection to a longer PETM time scale is tightly constrained—modern rates are some 9–10 times higher than those during onset of the PETM.
If the present trend of anthropogenic emissions continues, we can expect to reach a PETM‐scale accumulation of atmospheric carbon in as few as 140 to 259 years (about 5 to 10 human generations).
