Eleven years ago this week, I wrote my first critique of the so-called “billion-dollar disaster” count promoted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The dataset and how it is used represents one of the most spectacular abuses of science you will ever see — and obviously so, it is not even close. Yet, the U.S. government and big media outlets continue to promote the dataset, while experts who know better stand by silently.
The “billion dollar disaster” meme offers a wonderful example of what progressive activist and film maker David Sirota (DON’T LOOK UP) calls “the algorithm” which he explains as:
An information ecosystem in which news outlets promote or suppress facts based on whether those facts will flatter or offend their audience’s partisan impulses. . . Stories that might shame Democrats are amplified by right-wing media, but effectively shadowbanned by legacy and left-of-center media that do not want to offend a liberal readership that loathes news that might shame the Democratic politicians they worship. . . It’s the same thing on the other side.
What is the “billion dollar disaster” dataset?
NOAA counts the number of disasters in the United States that result in losses of greater than $1 billion and promotes the results a few times every year, generating headlines. The dataset is compelling clickbait because over the past three decades the count has shown a sharp increase, from five or less such disasters each year in the decade of the 1980s to fifteen or more in each of the past 3 years.
That increase in the number of economic losses over the $1 billion threshold is routinely cited as conclusive evidence of changes in extreme weather that are the result of climate change, such by President Biden (emphasis added):
Climate change is a major driver for the increased frequency, duration, and severity of extreme weather and climate-related disasters. Millions of Americans feel the effects of these extreme events when their roads and schools flood, and hospitals lose power. Over the past few years, the frequency of extreme weather and climate-related disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion has skyrocketed. From 2000 to 2009, these billion-dollar disasters occurred 6 times a year on average. From 2010 to 2020, that number increased to an average of 13 events per year, causing more than $975 billion in disaster damages over the decade.
The “billion dollar disaster” meme is more than just clickbait — beyond the White House, it has made its way into the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the U.S. National Climate Assessment and into various U.S. regulatory and legislative policies.
But wait a second — isn’t it great that NOAA science is making its way to the public, into federal policy, and all the way to the President? Actually, no. The billion-dollar disaster tally is easy to understand, simple to communicate, but in actual fact, incredibly misleading. It is climate misinformation.
