Friday, November 3, 2023

     THE GREAT HOW MUCH LESS IMPLAUSIBLE DEBATE

 13 PRIOR PUBLISHED  CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ESTIMATES OVERLAP THE  3.6 TO 6.0˚C WARMING RANGE IN HANSEN ET AL'S NEW PAPER. BUT LIKE MOST OF THE 13, THEIRS TOO DEPENDS ON THE ITERATION  OF BAD TO WORST-CASE  SCENARIO OUTCOMES. 

THAT'S A 14 ESTIMATE CONSENSUS, AND IT'S TOO EARLY TO INVOKE MURPHY'S SECOND LAW *, BUT ITS PUBLICISTS HAVE NOT BEEN TRANSPARENT AS TO WHAT HAPPENS WHEN MODEL  OUTCOMES ARE INTER-COMPARED USING THE  WHOLE SET OF SENSITIVITY ESTIMATE PAPERS , N  ~ 80, AS BAYESIAN PRIORS, INSTEAD OF JUST THE 13  

STAY TUNED FOR  LOUD SILENCE, AS  N ≥  500 NEWS OUTLETS TAKE THEIR LEAD FROM CLIMATE DESK & COVERING CLIMATE NOW.

*
If everything must go wrong, don't bet on it.

PARDON THE ANCIENT FAXED END , AND THE DETAIL GAP BETWEEN TODAY AND  GREGORY ET AL'S ARTICLE
How accurately can the climate sensitivity to  be estimated from historical climate change?




 
at