Roy Spencer Ph.D ,2015's Evangelical Climate Scientist of the Year, answers Lord Monckton's indignant response to his fisk of the Heartland Institute amicus curia brief:
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Of Zod and Nogs
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Roy Spencer has very kindly allowed me to post up this reply to his interesting posting about my team’s discussion of a large error we say we have found in climatological physics...
Roy is quite right to point out that the general-circulation models do not use the concept of feedback directly. However, there is a handy equation, with the clunky name zero-dimensional-model equation (lets call it ZOD)
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| MONCKTON'S REES-MOGG ZOD-NOG EQUATION |
that allows us to diagnose what equilibrium temperature the models would predict...
From what I can tell, Christopher claims that climatologists have assumed the theoretical 255K average global surface temperature in the absence of the greenhouse effect would actually induce a feedback response
I disagree… 255K is the theoretical, global average temperature of the Earth without greenhouse gases but assuming the same solar insolation and albedo.
It has no feedback response because it is a pure radiative equilibrium calculation.
From what I can tell, Christopher claims that climatologists have assumed the theoretical 255K average global surface temperature in the absence of the greenhouse effect would actually induce a feedback response
I disagree… 255K is the theoretical, global average temperature of the Earth without greenhouse gases but assuming the same solar insolation and albedo.
It has no feedback response because it is a pure radiative equilibrium calculation.
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| ZODS OF EQUAL RELEVANCE TO THE CLIMATE WARS |
The error arises from the fact that climate models are calibrated by reference to past climate. They have to explain why the world in, say, 1850, was 32 K warmer than the 255 K that would have prevailed that year (assuming today’s insolation and an albedo of about 0.3), in the absence of the naturally-occurring, non-condensing greenhouse gases (NOGS).
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NOGS OF LESS INTEREST THAN CO2
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Besides, the climate models do not depend upon that theoretical construct anyway; it has little practical value — and virtually no quantitative value
–other than in conceptual discussions (how could one have clouds without water vapor? How could a much colder Earth have no more ice cover than today?).
–other than in conceptual discussions (how could one have clouds without water vapor? How could a much colder Earth have no more ice cover than today?).
REES-MOGG'S WEEKLY DAILY MAIL EQUATION :
