Production of the lucrative black truffle, Tuber melanosporum, could end in the next 50 to 80 years as the Mediterranean region grows warmer and drier.
"Our new study predicts that, under the most likely climate change scenario, European truffle production will decline by between 78 and 100% between 2071 and 2100,”
says lead author Paul Thomas, of the University of Stirling, UK.
Thomas and his colleagues looked at 36 years of black truffle yield from France, Spain, and Italy and correlated the data to weather conditions over that timespan. They then used climate models to predict future fungus yields.
Continued production through 2071 could even be optimistic, Thomas says: “The decline may well occur in advance of this date, when other climate change factors are taken into account, such as heatwaves, forest fires, drought events, pests and disease.” France, Spain, and Italy are the largest producers of black truffles, which today cost around $2000 per kilogram.,, The UN’s World Food Program calls food insecurity one of the “most significant impacts of climate change”...
“However, the socio-economic impact of the predicted decline could be substantially larger as truffle harvesting and related activities form a key component of local history and cultural activity.”
According to a 2014 study that looked at truffle production around the world, “the total economic impact [of the industry] includes not only fresh truffles sold by farmers, but also agritourism, local mycological gastronomy, production of value-added truffle products, truffle fairs and retail markets, increase in agricultural land price in truffle-growing regions, production of mycorrhizal seedlings in nurseries, dog training, consumption of agricultural supplies by truffle growers, [and] technical assessment services.”
“These findings indicate that conservational initiatives are required to afford some protection to this important and iconic species,” [Thomas] says. “Potential action could include the expansion of truffle plantations into new territories of a more favourable future climate.”
