POSTDICTING ISN'T EASY , ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE PAST

Joe Bastardi's weather predictions are worth remembrring, if only because they have proven so memorably wrong in the long run- here, after five years of cork popping global high temperature is a five year vertical od his ice wine, rebottled for the  Heartland Institute cellars by Lord Lawson's man in Brussells, Pierre Gosselin 

Brutal Cold Headed For Europe And North America – Solar And Ocean Cycles Bode Of An Approaching Little Ice Age

By P Gosselin on 5. December 2012

Joe Bastardi at weatherbell.com/ posted a video where he tells us that another brutal December is in the works for the Northern Hemisphere.

Joe Bastardi says: Mar 25 at 7:25 am (UTC -6 )

There is a growing number of scientists that believe co2 can not affect the earths climate. Energy can neither be created nor destroyed, and co2 is part of the entire system already. There may be distortions from time to time, but you have to understand that a one degree drop in the tropical pacific as far as the earths total energy budget is concerned far outweighs a 10 degree rise over the arctic! You should know and understand that… the globe is not built for a perfect climate but constantly balances itself and that is why we have weather, including extremes. This article may shed some light on it, since you obviously have not read it, and you know that if it is proven co2 CAN NOT BE A DRIVER, the game is really up

"Contrary to what a few crackpot physicists tell us, it’s not because of a relatively small 2 million sq km area of less ice in September, but because of gigantic areas in the tropical Pacific.

At the 2:10 mark Joe tells us:

What goes on in the tropical Pacific is huge. It’s absolutely huge – you have to understand that. In fact it’s huge as to control the entire climate of the globe, which is why you hear me with the type of attitude I have on that because of the flip of the Pacific to a colder mode.”

Later in the video at the 5-minute mark his attention is directed at Europe:

“Look at this! This is just hard to believe. I just want too, again, people get a little nervous when I start talking about the climate aspect of this, but this is how the Little Ice Age began. In Europe there was an attack of one cold winter after another. This is the fourth one in a row that severe to record-breaking cold has entered Europe.”

Clearly ocean cycles do play a major role on climate, as Joe shows. But it’s not only Europe’s weather that is beginning to resemble the Little Ice Age. Also the sun is beginning to look like it did during the Little Ice Age.

Solar cycles as well bode very ill for the coming winters.

Frank Bosse has an article today at Die kalte Sonne.de/7191 on the current solar cycle. He writes as follows (translated and condensed):

Solar Cycle 24 is indeed the start of a deep solar slumber. Leif Svalgaard published a paper Svalgaard et al. 2005 already back in 2005 where he estimated sunspot activity would be a maximum of 70 for Cycle 24. David Hathaway of NASA and his colleagues on the other hand projected a powerful solar cycle, based of course on a new model. Lesson here: Don’t believe every model."

IT'S THE END OF THE SWAMPIAN AGE AS WE KNEW IT, AND CATASTROPHIC TO BOOT

THE  BRIEF  REIGN OF  MOOCHISAURUS  REX

A subnanometer layer of scorched earth spanning the Potomac Basin is all that remains of the geontological column of the Swampian Age.
After just three microeons, the shortest era in the history of deep time ground  to  a  halt  Monday, as the  great  particolored  chamelionoid  Moochisaurus rex  suddenly  devolved  and  went to  swim  with the fishes, just a decade after the  Anthopocene Epoch emerged from the primordial ooze of the social media.


In contrast to the mass extinction demarcated by

the centimeter thick global fallout  that records the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary asteroid impact, M.  rex  is the only political dinosaur to disappear in this postmodern extinction event. The death toll was curbed by the phenomenally short reign of the garish reptile as the top carnivore  of  the White House  Mess  during  the early  Trumpian  Era.

Moochisaurus rex  stalked the primodial fever-swamps of  the  Potomac only to expire in  a tweet storm of lethal dimensions. Fossils of this great nondescript remain elusive, but palaeontologists hope to learn more about  the creature's place in  post-Swampian  political ecology after it signs a book contract.

THINGS THIS SEC DEF WON'T GET AROUND TO

Here's what Watts' minions imagine:

Here's what DARPA is  actually working on, according to  WIRED. 

And here's what  they ought to  be doing :

r

MASS EXTINCTION OF BOUNDERS REPORTED AT A-T ( TRUMPOCENE -ANTHROPOCENE ) BOUNDARY

ORIGINAL  NEW YORKER PIECE  HERE

TRUMP CLIMATE POSE MAY DRIVE GORE FROM COVER OF VANITY FAIR TO VOGUE

WATTS TO MARSHALL SPELUNKERS MARCH AGAINST BADLY SITED MASS SPECTROMETERS?

Few leaps of faith exceed  Tallbloke's latest attempt ( Shades of Willie Soon's paid effort to find anomalies in giant clams in the South China Sea) to connect current climate change and sunspot numbers, via the abstract of an  unpublished  paper  on  the trace element chemistry of  one stalagmite from a Belgian cave:

Clim. Past Discuss., 
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-91

 Manuscript under review for journal Clim. Past Discussion started: 11 July 2017Author(s) 
Mohammed Allan1, Adrien Deliège2, Sophie Verheyden3, Samuel Nicolay2, Yves Quinif4, 5 Nathalie Fagel1

1AGEs, Département de Géologie, Université de Liège, Allée du 6 Août, B18 B-4000, Liège, Belgium
2 Institut de Mathématique, Université de Liège, Allée de la Découverte 12, B37 B-4000 Liège, Belgium
4Université de Mons, Rue de Houdain9, B-7000 Mons, Belgium Correspondence to: M. Allan (mohammed.allan@ ulg.ac.be)

Abstract. We present a decadal-centennial scale Holocene climate record based on trace elements contents from a 65 cm stalagmite (“Père Noël”) from Belgian Père Noël cave. Père Noël (PN) stalagmite covers the last 12.7 ka according to U/Th dating. High spatial resolution measurements of trace elements (Sr, Ba, Mg and Al) were done by Laser- Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS).

Trace elements profiles were interpreted as environmental and climate changes in the Han-sur-Lesse region. Power spectrum estimators and continuous wavelet 15 transform were applied on trace elements time series to detect any statistically significant periodicities in the PN stalagmite. Spectral analyses reveal decadal to millennial periodicities (i.e., 68-75, 133-136, 198-209, 291-358, 404- 602,912-1029 and 2365-2670 yr) in the speleothem record.

Results were compared to reconstructed sunspot number data to determine whether solar signal is presents in PN speleothem. The occurrence of significant solar periodicities (i.e., cycles of Gleissberg, de Vries, unnamed 500 years, Eddy and Hallstat) supports for an impact of solar forcing on 20 PN speleothem trace elements contents. Moreover, several intervals of significant rapid climate change were detected during the Holocene at 10.3, 9.3-9.5, around 8.2, 6.4-6.2, 4.7-4.5, and around 2.7 ka BP. Those intervals are similar to the cold events evidenced in different natural paleoclimate archivers, suggesting common climate forcing mechanisms related to changes in solar irradiance. 

SAVE THE WHALES : STOP USING PUNCTUATION

ESSAY

Reading  a  Dysfunctional  World

Why Merwin’s The Lice is needed now more than ever.

BY ADRIENNE RAPHEL

The Lice, W.S. Merwin’s sixth and possibly most iconic collection

of  poetry,  was  published  in  1967...  its confluence of mythology and ugly physical reality  struck a nerve  with a world shaken politically  and  environmentally to its core... these are poems charged with uncertainty, written  in  a  world  on  the  brink  of environmental meltdown torn by tyrants ...

The  Lice  is   relevant   politically  and environmentally... because it gives us a mode to experience a dysfunctional world...

Poets who had cut their teeth on Modernism and New Criticism ... found themselves turning more and more to political activism...Merwin discovered a different way of being political in poetry: the politics of negative capability.

In The Lice, Merwin abandons punctuation altogether... Losing punctuation in The Lice allows Merwin to loosen the relationship between sense and syntax... “For a Coming Extinction” begins, 

Gray whale Now that we are sending you to The End That great god  Tell him That we who follow you invented forgiveness And forgive nothing.” ...

There is just enough connective tissue to hold all possibilities at  once  without  the poem’s  falling  into  ambiguous  mush, 

FROM ACCESS TO TOOLS TO DYSTOPIA RULES

   THIS IS  THE  WAY  THE  WORLD  ENDS, NOT   WITH  A   BANG , BUT  A  RERUN?

NOT  TO WORRY- IN  ANOTHER  FIFTY YEARS,
  WE'LL GET TO BE  EXTINCT  AGAIN!

WHITE HOUSE ADDS ELEPHANT WALK TO EGG ROLLING LAWN

IN  A  MOVE EXPECTED  TO SAVE  PEANUTS,  TRUMP  HAS REDESIGNATED  COMMUNICATIONS  CZAR  
SCARAMUCCI  AS  UNDERSECRETARY  OF  COMPOST,  TO OVERSEE
  THE  RECYCLING OF  FORMER  WHITE HOUSE  CHIEFS  OF STAFF  INTO THE  SOUTH LAWN 

WHEN THE WHITE HOUSE SAW THE WANTED POSTER THEY OFFERED HIM A JOB

Chris Horner, late  Government relations Chief of  Enron, & CEI climate  denial  legal eagle, has been  unwisely  and  hilariously candid  in talking to  one of the few  colleagues who make him seem reasonable by comparison -  For an hour of truly gonzo  performance journalism try :
http://www.breitbart.com/podcasts/james-delingpole/

CLIMATE SEMIOTICS: NARRATIVE ARCSMANSHIP AT THE GWPF

MUCH AS MEDIEVAL CHURCHES RELIED ON WALL PAINTINGS TO CONVEY THE SENSE OF  SCRIPTURE  TO THE ILLITERATE, THE GLOBAL WARMING  POLICY FOUNDATION HAS
  COMMISSIONED AN UNCOMMMONLY DENSE JOSH CARTOON

 TO CONVEY ROGER PIELKE'S ADDRESS, Climate Politics as Manichean Paranoia

PARTS OF JOSH'S WORK ARE EXCELLENT, BUT  AS WITH  TAR SAND & HEAVY CRUDE
 IT  TAKES  TWO - STAGE REFINING TO  GET  TO  A  SALABLE  PRODUCT - FIRST:
REMOVE BERLIN WALL & BURN OFF CLICHE' UNDERGROWTH

 SECOND : DISTILL  MEME  CONCENTRATE &  CONDENSE 
 INTO  WHAT  GWPF  PATRONS  WANT TO BUY :

While finding room for 38 visual memes in his cartoon,  Josh somehow forgot 2 things Pielke repeatedly  said he supports: 
Carbon Taxes & the  IPCC

HISTORY OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: LESSONS UNLEARNED

Three years ago Carl Sagan and a few other scientists proposed a new theory of Armageddon. 

They called it "nuclear winter,"and their message was chilling.

The end  of  the  world,  they  said, would come not by fire during a nuclear attack but by ice afterward

After a nuclear war, the Earth would become encircled with smoke, dark, and cold. No one could  expect to survive the frost, not the innocent New Zealanders or the remotest tribes of  Africa. Even a small atomic  war  could  end  human  life , Sagan  concluded  in  the  Winter 1983-84  issue of Foreign Affairs  that  all  nuclear weapons should  be eliminated, or at least 99 percent of them.

This insight did not come from a rereading of the book of Revelation, It rested on modern physics and a very sophisticated computer program. It had the glint of hard science. 

Sagan, who is an expert on the solar system and an adviser to NASA on the Voyager space probe, may be America's most famous popularizer of science.  In  1983  several  other  scientists,  including  biologist  Paul Ehrlich  of  Stanford,  joined  Sagan  to  endorse  the view  that  nuclear weapons  were  a  threat to  the  human species, quite  apart  from the obvious threat to civilized life north of the equator.  They launched a media blitz that included heavy technical articles, political essays, and TV interviews.  It  still  reverberates  through  literature.

The message was always the same:

 scientific analysis "proves" that nuclear

weapons are useless. To employ them is

to commit global suicide. Even owning

them is dangerous because it increases

The best thing to do is to get rid of them.
This message came nine months after 
Reagan's "Star Wars" speech,  matching
his technician's dream  with a technician's 
nightmare of equal force.

The nuclear winter theorists wanted

publicity back then, and they got it.

But now the situation has changed.

The death-by-ice theory seems moribund,

riddled with problems, and of diminishing
relevance to strategic policy. The same can
be said of  Reagan's idea  of  using  space 
weapons to protect cities.

The main technical challenge to nuclear

winter comes from Stephen Schneider

and Starley Thompson, researchers at

the National Center for Atmospheric 
Research in Boulder, Colorado. They agree

with Sagan that the number of nuclear

weapons should be reduced, but they

say the integrity of atmospheric science

should not be sacrificed to make that

point. 

Schneider claims that it has been

clear for perhaps two years that Sagan's

original description of nuclear winter is

not the most accurate. But coaxing has

not brought any acknowledgment that

this is so. Sagan said recently that he

found "nothing new" in a state-of-theart

computer analysis by Schneider and

Thompson to change his view of

Armageddon.

Schneider and Thompson laid out

their doubts in a Foreign Affairs article last

summer, reporting that the chance of

human extinction after a nuclear war is

"vanishingly low," They find no risk of

a new ice age. Some open, dry areas in

the war latitudes might undergo temporary

"quick freezes," But, on average,

the temperature drop in the Northern

Hemisphere would not be worse than 12

degrees during the first week or so after

an attack.

At a private gathering of experts at the

National Academy of Sciences in January,

it became clear that this new mild

version of "nuclear autumn" is credible

and may even overstate the temperature

drop. This does not mean the climatic

impacts of war would be mild, Schneider

and Thompson say that rice and soybeans

are sensitive to small temperature

changes and that global rainfall patterns

might be disrupted. Millions (billions?)

might starve. But there would be no ice

in the tropics; that is certain. Schneider

says: "Carl's idea was brilliant. He proposed

an invasion from Mars," It just

didn't hold up under scrutiny.

The more apocalyptic version of nuclear

winter has become a part of the

anti-weapons dogma of the 1980s, As a

result, some people may be reluctant to

let it go. Others will delight in its agonies...

Although Schneider's milder scenario

has more credibility today, the technical

argument has a long way to run.

This is because the Pentagon has been

cajoled into taking nuclear winter seriously.

The Defense and Energy Departments

have increased research on nuclear winter

from around $300,000 a few years ago
to around $5.5 million now. It is embedded
in the budget. The amount is nothing like 
the $5 billion spent on the other millennial
fancy of  the 1980s, "Star Wars," and not

enough—the vested researchers  say—to

provide definitive answers to the questions

Sagan has raised.

But even without definitive answers,

it may be time to say goodbye to nuclear

winter as a policy issue. If Schneider and

Thompson are right, and atmospheric

scientists seem to think they are, the climatic

impact is just one of a dozen "secondary

effects" of nuclear war that would make 
life hardly worth living.

The main policy debate will continue to

focus on the "primary" effect: the use of

weapons. In this sense, nuclear winter

was a diversion, providing little insight

on how to cooperate on arms reductions,

an area rife with distrust.

The freeze movement may have gained

a tactical victory through the promotion

of nuclear winter. It helped get attention.

But the advantage appears to have been

short-lived. Now, as the computer termites

gnaw at the data, the structure creaks and

totters. Soon it may be gone.

Perhaps if we are lucky, 1987 will bring

the final debunking of two great science

fictions of the Reagan era: nuclear winter

and Star Wars.

Thanks to Eliot Marshall for  providing the pdf from which this was excerpted- 

Copyright 1987 , The New Republic

Some of the true believers are still  re-running the TTAPS models parameters and deny that anything much went wrong :
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v475/n7354/full/475037b.html?foxtrotcallback=true

THE PLANTATIONOCENE PEANUT GALLERY

Environmental Humanities, vol. 6, 2015, pp. 159-165 

COMMENTARY
Anthropocene, Capitalocene, Plantationocene, Chthulucene: Making Kin

Donna Haraway
History of Consciousness, University of California, Santa Cruz, USA

...
the issues about naming relevant to the Anthropocene, Plantationocene, or Capitalocene have to do with... the effects of bioculturally, biotechnically, biopolitically, historically situated people (not Man) relative to, and combined with, the effects of other species assemblages and other biotic/abiotic forces...
No species, not even our own arrogant one pretending to be good individuals in so-called modern Western scripts, acts alone; assemblages of organic species and of abiotic actors make history, the evolutionary kind and the other kinds too...is there an inflection point of consequence that changes the name of the “game” of life on earth for everybody and everything? 

It's more than climate change; it's also extraordinary burdens of toxic chemistry, mining, depletion of lakes and rivers under and above ground, ecosystem simplification, vast genocides of people and other critters, etc, etc, in systemically linked patterns that threaten major system collapse after major system collapse after major system collapse. Recursion can be a drag...we need a name for the dynamic ongoing sym-chthonic forces and powers of which people are a part, within which ongoingness is at stake. 

PEOPLE WHO PLAY WITH GLASS BOXES SHOULD DRAW MOANS

THE MOST  EARTH  SHATTERING DISCOVERY  SINCE  LAST WEEK'S  NATIONAL ENQUIRER:
WORLD NET DAILY EXCLUSIVE

STUDY BLOWS ' GREENHOUSE THEORY 

OUT OF THE WATER '

'All observed climatic changes have natural causes completely outside of human control'

ALEX NEWMAN  Published: 07/08/2017 at 8:53 PM

BOZEMAN, Mont. – A new scientific paper contends the entire foundation of the man-made global-warming theory – the assumption that greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere by trapping heat – is wrong.

If confirmed, the study’s findings would crush the entire “climate change” movement to restrict CO2 emissions, the authors assert

Some experts contacted by WND criticized the paper, while others advised caution.

Still others suggested that the claimed discovery represents a massive leap forward in human understanding – a “new paradigm.”

The paper argues that concentrations of CO2 and other supposed “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere have virtually no effect on the earth’s temperature.

They conclude the entire greenhouse gas theory is incorrect.

Instead, the earth’s “greenhouse” effect is a function of the sun and atmospheric pressure, which results from gravity and the mass of the atmosphere, rather than the amount of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and water vapor in the atmosphere...

NOTE UN-NOTED 2 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE
SCALE BREAK, AND FAILURE TO DISCLOSE
 TITAN'S AVERAGE  TEMPERATURE IS -290 F.

The paper

The paper, published recently [ AT THE AUTHORS EXPENSE] in the journal “Environment Pollution and Climate Change,” was written by Ned Nikolov, a Ph.D. in physical science, and Karl Zeller, retired Ph.D. research meteorologist.

The prevailing theory on the earth’s temperature is that heat from the sun enters the atmosphere, and then greenhouse gases such as CO2, methane and water vapor trap part of that energy by preventing it from escaping back into space.

That theory, which underpins the anthropogenic global-warming hypothesis and the climate models used by the United Nations, was first proposed and developed in the 19th century.

However, the experiments on which it was based involved glass boxes that retain heat by preventing the mixing of air inside the box with air outside the box.

The experiment is not analogous to what occurs in the real atmosphere, which does not have walls or a lid, according to Nikolov and Zeller...

What it all means for science and the climate debate

This is not the first paper to reject the greenhouse-gas theory entirely.

In 2009, for example, Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf Tscheuschner published a paper titled “Falsification of the Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics” in the International Journal of Modern Physics.

They wrote that the “atmospheric greenhouse effect” that “is still supported in global climatology” basically “describes a fictitious mechanism.” The second law of thermodynamics, they said, shows that “can never exist.”

However, their paper did not propose a mechanism to explain the higher temperature of Earth relative to the moon.

The new paper by Nikolov and Zeller does propose such a mechanism – atmospheric pressure.

If correct, the implications of the discovery would be enormous, multiple scientists told WND.

The truth about global warming is no further than the WND Superstore, where “Climategate,” “The Greatest Hoax,” and more publications are available.