Friday, June 28, 2024
Sunday, June 23, 2024
GREEK CLIMATE CRISIS ENTERS THIRD MILLENNIUM
Lewis Lapham has retired to Rome but Lapham's Quarterly reminds us that now, as when the word "history" was coined in Aesop's time, not much is new under the sun: |
"In his Histories, Herodotus tells how the ancient Greeks and the Egyptians each thought the other was poised to become climate victims.
When Herodotus traveled to Egypt to conduct field interviews for his research, he wanted to know everything about the Nile: how much water it contained, how much the sun evaporated that water, and what its seasonal rhythms were. That the Nile blithely irrigated vast portions of the delta without the need for the Egyptian farmers to do anything filled him with civilizational envy.
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But Herodotus predicted that the Egyptians would be in trouble when the delta collected too much sediment and reached an incline that made it no longer so easily irrigable. Then the Egyptians “will suffer for all remaining time,” he wrote. During an interview he conducted with a Nile River clerk, he discovered Egyptians felt the same way about him.
They pitied the Greeks because they were more dependent on rainfall for their crops.
“If the god shall not send them rain,” Herodotus wrote, channeling his native informant, “but shall allow drought to prevail for a long time, the Hellenes will be destroyed by hunger; for they have in fact no other supply of water to save them except from Zeus alone.”
The losers of this game of environmental chance would start appearing as climate refugees at the winners’ doorstep, ready to worship new gods.
Thomas Meaney is a fellow at the Max Planck Society at Göttingen. His work has appeared in The New Yorker, the London Review of Books, the Guardian, and elsewhere.CLIMATE OF HYPE: (MAYBE IT ISN'T JUST ME?)
HYPE KILLS YOUR STORY
The use of hyperbole in scientific literature is increasing, undermining effective scientific communication.
All science writing courses emphasize that a manuscript should tell a story. But why is that? After all, a scientific finding remains true regardless of the final write-up. Discoveries are made in the laboratory, but the scientific method is much more than han- dling equipment with dexterity and carrying out a well-designed experiment. A pillar of the scientific method, as formulated in the seven- teenth century, is to report findings so others can repeat them. Only then do they become part of human knowledge — a literature.
All important pieces of knowledge in the history of humankind have been transmitted down through stories (orally or written). As the 2017 Nobel laureate in Literature Kazuo Ishiguro put it1:
“For me, the essential thing is that stories communicate feelings. That they appeal to what we share as human beings across our borders and divides.”
We would argue that a scientific paper too should communicate feelings. And what better subject to cut across borders and divides than science! A paper is pleasing to read when the reader can feel a sense of amazement with the sci- ence presented, when the beauty of nature, the simplicity of an idea or the elegance of an experiment become self-evident.
Communicating feelings does not mean recounting a full day of work, or the emotions one went through while purifying a challenging sample or during that particularly productive day in the lab, although a rich description of such circumstances were the norm in the past — consider for example how Gilbert Stokes reports the discovery of the homonymous shift in the fluorescence of quinine solutions in 1852. At some point in his 100-page paper, he voices frustration that:
“Want of sunlight [not an abundant commodity in Cambridge, England] proved to be such an impediment to the pursuit of these researches that I was induced to try some bright flames, with the view of obtaining some convenient substitute.”
Nowadays, a paper must be concise and to the point. Communicating feelings means letting the reader experience the same moment of epiphany the authors did when everything suddenly made sense, taking the reader by the hand to the newly discovered land. In science, this is usually done by interlinking data, photographs, and models in a logical manner. Atoms, photons, vibrational states and quasi-particles are the characters. In other types of literature, writers use different tools to generate images in their readers’ brains (metaphors in poetry, for instance). But like for other literature, the idea is to create a compelling and engaging picture in the mind of the reader, who will then be able to follow your reasoning and description (the ‘show, don’t tell’ predicate).
Hyperbolic statements, such as “this work represents a breakthrough/paradigm shift/ groundbreaking/unprecedented result, opens up new avenues of investigation, is the Holy Grail, and so on”, kill the pleasure of reading, because they undermine the whole construct3.
They contribute nothing to the building of that mental image and instead impose the authors’ opinions upon the reader with brute force. Those expressions already create apprehension in the reader. Sadly, studies have shown that hyped expressions per paper published have doubled in the past 50 years, especially in the hard sciences, probably because academic findings in these disciplines tend to lack immediate real-world implications4,5. If authors feel the urge to add these statements, they should ask themselves
whether there is a better, quantitative argument that can be made instead. Doing so will result in more compelling prose.
As editors, we strive to offer to our readers the best scientific studies we receive. If a manuscript tries too hard to convince us, we feel a sense of nausea. On the contrary, a good paper brings us joy.
Believe it or not, we can sense the excitement for the science when we read manuscripts; and so will the reader. When we come across this kind of manuscript, we get a rush of excitement; we cannot wait to let our readers know all about it. That is when we know a manuscript has a story to tell, a story that is likely to hit the imagination of the reader, and that can be inspirational.
Paraphrasing the Editor-in-Chief of Nature, Magdalena Skipper, we would like our papers to read like a page-turner of a book. It’s literature after all.
Published online: 18 June 2024
References
1. Ishiguro,K.MyTwentiethCenturyEvening—andOther Small Breakthroughs (The Nobel Foundation, 2017); https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/literature/2017/ ishiguro/lecture/
2. Stokes,G.G.Philos.Trans.R.Soc.London142, 463–562 (1852).
3. Halford,B.Chem.Eng.News87,34(2009).
4. Hyland, K. & Jiang, F. J. Pragm. 182, 189–202 (2021). 5. Vinkers,C.H.etal.BMJ351,h6467(2015).
6. Thielking,M.MeetNature’sneweditor:ageneticist
who reads scientific papers like ‘page turners’ STAT
(4 May 2018); https://www.statnews.com/2018/05/04/ nature-editor-in-chief-magdalena-skipper/
Friday, June 21, 2024
MAR A LAGO : THE SANDWRITING ON THE WALL
Governor DeSantis ban on using the words 'climate change' in naming state programs didn't stop Florida from spending a hundred million dollars shoring up the servant's entrance to Mar A Lago.
CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLORIDA STYLE
PR FLACKS WIND DOWN TAR SAND DISINFO CAMPAIGN
Alberta's government says it is "actively exploring" the use of every legal option, including a constitutional challenge or the use of the Alberta Sovereignty Act, to push back against federal legislation that will soon become law.
That legislation is Bill C-59, which would require companies to provide evidence to back up their environmental claims. It is currently awaiting royal assent.
As of Thursday, it was also what led the Pathways Alliance, a consortium of Canada's largest oilsands companies, to remove all its content from its website, social media and other public communications.
"For now, we have removed content from our website, social media and other public communications."
Asked about the move by reporters on Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that in a democracy, it's important that "people build their positions and their decisions around facts."
"Now, freedom of expression, freedom of people to share their points of view, is extraordinarily important. It's one of the foundations of a free and open democracy," Trudeau said.
"But we need to make sure that people are debating and discussing and basing their worldview on things that are anchored in truth and reality."
Pathways Alliance members react
The Pathways Alliance — which includes Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., ConocoPhillips Canada, Imperial Oil Ltd., MEG Energy Corp. and Suncor Energy Inc. — has publicly stated its pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions from oilsands to net-zero by 2050.
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Monday, June 17, 2024
Sunday, June 16, 2024
TOO CHEAP TO METER
Surging Renewables Push
French Energy Prices Negative
Shutting Down Nuclear Plants
French energy prices recently plunged into negative territory, reaching a four-year low of -€5.76 per megawatt-hour in an Epex Spot auction, Bloomberg reported. This unusual occurrence was driven by an excess of renewable energy production combined with reduced demand, particularly over the weekend. The surplus in renewable power led to some French nuclear plants going offline.
Renewable Energy Surge and Market Impact
The drop in day-ahead energy prices underscores the profound impact that renewable energy, particularly wind and solar power, is having on the European energy market. As renewable energy production surged, especially during periods of low demand, it created an oversupply that forced prices down. This imbalance pressured Electricité de France (EDF), the state-owned utility company, to temporarily shut down several nuclear reactors to avoid generating excess power that could not be sold profitably. Initially, three nuclear plants were halted, with plans to take three more offline.
A Pan-European Issue
This phenomenon is not isolated to France. Other European countries, including Spain and those in the Scandinavian region, also experience similar shutdowns of nuclear reactors due to excess renewable energy generation. The continent’s push to decarbonize energy grids has accelerated the deployment of renewable infrastructure. However, the lack of adequate battery technology and investment to store surplus energy has created pricing inefficiencies, leading to occurrences of negative prices.
Friday, June 14, 2024
THE REAL TRICK IS LEARNING TO RESPOND CANDIDLY
Given the seriousness of this issue, and that the criticism seems to be getting quite a lot of traction, I thought it important to read the original paper that presents a perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios. As far as I can see, it is not assigning the highest priority to the most extreme scenarios. If also seems to have considered most of the criticisms of scenarios, discusses the different uses for scenarios, including high-end pathways, and highlights that it would be beneficial to separate high forcing pathways for scientific purposes from the more policy-oriented framing pathway categories.
So, once again, it seems that the criticism is - at best - wildly exaggerated, or - at worst - completely misrepresents what's being done. Of course, the latter would probably not surprise some people. It's always been pretty clear that much of the criticism of RCP8.5 was motivated more by a desire to find something to criticise, than by any desire to be constructive. The same seems to be the case here. To be fair, if you're a bad faith actor motivated by a desire to simply find something to criticise, it must be tricky to know how to respond if those you're criticising actually take your initial criticisms seriously.
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
WATERFRONT PROPERTY ON THE ROAD TO HELL
Where some see the future as a highway to climate hell, others spy opportunity. Recent reports of increased ice melting sensitivity may reinforce the plans of rising Middle East real estate mogul, Jared Kushner.
The former First Son In Law learned all about geoengineering as head of the White House Office of American Innovation. While his idea of repurposing the Gaza Strip as beachfront condos didn't fly, in international real estate development, it pays to think big, witness Donald Trump's proposal buy Greenland from Denmark.
One of the few uncontroversial things to emerge from the geoengineering controversy is that it is easier to melt ice than to save it. With enough crop dusters spreading soot, the meltdown of the Greenland Ice Cap could be radically accelerated, setting the stage to inundate the Eastern Med in less time than it takes to get to Net Zero.
Producers would pay billions to film such a project, for End-Time channels focused on the Plain of Armageddon generate excellent advertising revenue, as evangelical luminaries have warned of hostilities erupting there every day for the last three-score years and ten.