Monday, September 9, 2019

  AFTER THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER ATE MY HOMEWORK
   AND 13 JOURNALS REJECTED IT,  I HIRED A VANITY PRESS


Sunday, September 8, 2019


Another round of Pat Frank's "propagation of uncertainties.

See update below for a clear and important error.

There has been another round of the bizarre theories of Pat Frank, saying that he has found huge uncertainties in GCM outputs that no-one else can see. His paper has found a publisher - WUWT article here. It is a pinned article; they think it is a big deal.

The paper is in Frontiers or Earth Science. This is an open publishing system, with (mostly) named reviewers and editors. The supportive editor was Jing-Jia Luo, who has been at BoM but is now at Nanjing. The named reviewers are Carl Wunsch and Davide Zanchettin.

I wrote a Moyhu article on this nearly two years ago, and commented extensively on WUWT threads, eg here. My objections still apply. The paper is nuts. Pat Frank is one of the hardy band at WUWT who insist that taking a means of observations cannot improve the original measurement uncertainty. But he takes it further, as seen in the neighborhood of his Eq 2. He has a cloud cover error estimated annually over 20 years. He takes the average, which you might think was just a average of error. But no, he insists that if you average annual data, then the result is not in units of that data, but in units/year. There is a wacky WUWT to-and-fro on that beginning here. A referee had objected to changing the units of annual time series averaged data by inserting the /year. The referee probably thought he was just pointing out an error that would be promptly corrected. But no, he coped a tirade about his ignorance. And it's true that it is not a typo, but essential to the arithmetic. Having given it units/year, that makes it a rate that he accumulates. I vainly pointed out that if he had gathered the data monthly instead of annually, the average would be assigned units/month, not /year, and then the calculated error bars would be sqrt(12) times as wide.

One thing that seems newish is the emphasis on emulation. This is also a WUWT strand of thinking. You can devise simple time models, perhaps based on forcings, which will give similar results to GCMs for one particular variable, global averaged surface temperature anomaly. So, the logic goes, that must be what GCM's are doing (never mind all the other variables they handle). And Pat Frank's article has much of this. From the abstract: "An extensive series of demonstrations show that GCM air temperature projections are just linear extrapolations of fractional greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing." The conclusion starts: "This analysis has shown that the air temperature projections of advanced climate models are just linear extrapolations of fractional GHG forcing."Just totally untrue, of course, as anyone who actually understands GCMs would know. 

- According to wiki:

"In October 2015, Frontiers was added to Jeffrey Beall's list of "Potential, possible, or probable" predatory open-access publishers.[5][37][10] The inclusion was met with backlash amongst some researchers.[5] In July 2016 Beall recommended that academics not publish their work in Frontiers journals, stating "the fringe science published in Frontiers journals stigmatizes the honest research submitted and published there",[38] and in October of that year Beall reported that reviewers have called the review process "merely for show"

And, writing about a chemtrails conspiracy article published in a Frontiers journal, Beall wrote: "The publication of this article is further evidence that Frontiers is little more than a vanity press. The fringe science published in Frontiers journals stigmatizes the honest research submitted and published there.

I suspect that no honest publisher would have accepted this article. That’s why conspiracy theorists such as Herndon go to MDPI and Frontiers when they want to publish something — the acceptance and publication are all but guaranteed, as long as the author fee is paid.

Frontiers’ peer review process is flawed. It is stacked in favor of accepting as many papers as possible in order to generate more revenue for the company. Frontiers is included on my list, and I recommend against publishing in its journals, which are rather expensive to publish in anyway."

https://web.archive.org/web/20160809165213/https://scholarlyoa.com/2016/07/14/more-fringe-science-from-borderline-publisher-frontiers/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontiers_Media#cite_note-38
Publishing fees seem to be the thick end of 2K USD, hope you got your money's worth, Pat!

Anthony WattsSeptember 9, 2019 at 2:30 AM
Oh, boo hoo. Typical paid opinion by Phil Clarke Then there's Fordie whining over the participation of Wunsch, while simultaneously trying to claim the journal is no good. Do you really think he's allow his name to go on as a reviewer if the paper was "nutty" as Stokes claims?

Clarke argues that it's pay for play and therefore the publisher can't be trusted. Go look at fees for Nature and many others that offer open access.

But every one of you lamers was TOTALLY OK with Lewandowsky publishing his unethical psychoanalysis paper there, which was later retracted because people like me spoke up about it and the abhorrent practices he used. None of you did, not one. You were totally OK with the "science" in Frontiers then.

"I suspect that no honest publisher would have accepted this article. That’s why conspiracy theorists such as Herndon go to MDPI and Frontiers when they want to publish something — the acceptance and publication are all but guaranteed, as long as the author fee is paid." Well golly, that's just what happened to Lewandowsky with his conspiracy theory paper.

In April 2013, Frontiers in Psychology retracted a controversial article linking climate change denialism and "conspiracist ideation"; the retraction was itself also controversial and led to the resignations of at least three editors. (Boo hoo, they defended bad science that nobody else would publish.)

It's all about hate and tribalism with you folks. There's no honesty about science with any of you, especially the ones hiding behind fake names.

Feel free to be as upset as you wish.

Replies
  1. Oh dear.

    If anybody cares, I use my real name and (of course) never been paid to post.
#2 Paul Pukite