Friday, March 30, 2018

                         CLIMATE  OF  FEAR  DEEPENS  AS

President Trump's prospective summit meeting with  Kim  Jong Un  has cast the shadow of
an orgy of lagomorphagy over the Pascal  season.

In the darkest days of Kim Jong Un's late father, Kim Jong   Il,  a  philanthropic German farmer dispatched the world's largest rabbit to starving North Korea with the aim of founding a breeding program to alleviate famine.
Herr Szmolinsky is hopping mad at the Nork bunny boilers

Alas, the  twenty kilogram  uberbunny  arrived as Kim Jong-il's 2007  birthday party approached, and it was spotted by the Dear Leader's culinary talent scouts.
While the embassy of the  Democratic People's Hermit Kingdom denied the  Guiding Sun Ray & Invincible and  Ever Triumphant General would ever authorize the termination of the Easter Bunny with extreme  prejudice,  his  personal chef later confessed  to the alleged lepicide, having combined the Prussian Giant Grey Rabbit with a giant pumpkin to create a supersized crunchy stir-fry. 

Between  Novochok doorknobs,  polonium tea, and  the  spectre  of Tuleremia genes spliced into ghost chilli kimchi, Secret Service food tasters may have a full plate if the summit comes off-- the rumored venue is Kazakhstan.
On the Internet, no one knows you're Steve Bannon in a bunny suit.

Monday, March 19, 2018


Global warming on trial and the elementary error of physics that caused the global warming scare

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
This will be a long posting,  but it will not be found uninteresting.
"Our amicus brief, lodged for us by a
good friend of the ever-valuable
Heartland Institute, concludes..
the oil corporations... 
should pay
the cost of their folly in accordance
with the ancient legal principle

volenti non fit injuria – "
Global warming on trial: Global warming goes on trial at 8.00 am this Wednesday, 21 March 2018, in Court 8 on the 19th floor of the Federal Building at 450 Golden Gate Avenue, San Francisco... 
His Honor Judge William Haskell no ordinary, custard-faced law graduate. Before he descended to the law (he wanted to help the civil rights movement), he earned a B.S. in engineering at Mississippi State University.
Rumors gather about great men. In hushed tones, those who talk of Judge Alsup say he taught himself the Java programming language so that he could decide the rangeCheck case. In fact, he is not familiar with Java... On the vast desk in his book-lined office sits a 2011-vintage Dell laptop, the only one he has that will still run qBasic. He has written programs for his ham-radio hobby, for the Mastermind board game, and for his wife’s bridge game.
The 18-year-old Bill Alsup at his ham radio console in Mississippi.
Hearing of this case, and of Bill Alsup’s starring role, I wondered what line of argument might convince a scientifically literate judge... that there is no cause for alarm about manmade global warming...
His Honor might decide – and all but a few irredentists would be compelled to agree – that global warming was not a problem and that the scare was over.
I have had the honor to lead a team of eminent climatological researchers who have been quietly but very busily investigating how much global warming we may cause, known as the “equilibrium-sensitivity” question.
We can now prove... by multiple empirical methods what we originally demonstrated by a theoretical method. The half-dozen methods all cohere in the same ballpark... my team had submitted a paper on our result to a leading climatological journal (by convention, I am bound not to say which until publication).
Therefore, I am at last free to reveal what we have discovered... There is indeed an elementary error of physics right at the heart of the models’ calculations  the abstract of the underlying paper. It is just 70 words long, for the error (though it has taken me a dozen years to run it to earth) really is stupendously elementary:
Abstract: In a dynamical system, even an unamplified input signal induces a response to any feedback. Hitherto, however, the large feedback response to emission temperature has been misattributed to warming from the naturally-occurring, non-condensing greenhouse gases. After correction, the theoretically-derived pre-industrial feedback fraction is demonstrated to cohere with the empirically-derived industrial-era value an order of magnitude below previous estimates, mandating reduction of projected Charney sensitivity from clip_image006 to clip_image008.
Equations: To understand the argument that follows, we shall need three equations.
The zero-dimensional-model equation (1) says that equilibrium sensitivity or final warming ΔTeq is the ratio of reference sensitivity or initial warming ΔTref to (1 – f ), where is the feedback fraction, i.e., the fraction of ΔTeq represented by the feedback response ΔT(ref) to ΔTref. The entire difference between reference and equilibrium sensitivity is accounted for by the feedback response ΔT(ref) (the bracketed subscript indicates a feedback response).
ΔTeq = ΔTref / (1 – f ). (1)
The zero-dimensional model is not explicitly used in general-circulation models. 
... atmospheric dynamics requires that there must be a tropical mid-troposphere “hot spot” [I had the honor to name it], where the warming rate should be twice or thrice that at the tropical surface. However, the “hot spot” is not observed in reality (see below), except in one suspect dataset that Dr Fred Singer scrutinized some years ago and determined to be defective.
The model-predicted “hot spot” is not observed in reality (Karl et al. 2006).
 Even after we had built and operated our own test rig – as far as we know, this is the first time anyone has tried to test climatological feedback theory empirically rather than simply modeling it we were not satisfied that anything other than tests performed under rigorous conditions at a government laboratory would be found widely acceptable.
Accordingly.. I commissioned a government laboratory to carry out the experiments...However, a problem at once arose  So very small were the feedback responses predicted ... the presence of the operator in the same room as the test rig tended to bias the results...
I worked for months with a patient and amiable scientist at the government laboratory... 
When the laboratory reported, I sent it a copy of our draft paper, in which the lab results were mentioned. The laboratory panicked and said we were not allowed to use its report.
With these results from a national laboratory (we cannot even mention which country it was in) we were at last content that we had established our conclusion with sufficient rigor...
We do not believe in magic.

Sunday, March 11, 2018


Citing multiple sources, THE NEW YORK TIMES reports that:

"John F. Kelly, the White House chief of staff, has killed an effort by the head of the Environmental Protection Agency to stage public debates challenging climate change science, ... thwarting a plan that had intrigued President Trump even as it set off alarm bells among his top advisers.
It's  his  baby.
The idea of publicly critiquing climate change on the national stage has been a notable theme for Scott Pruitt, the administrator of the E.P.A. For nearly a year he has championed the notion of holding military-style exercises known as red team, blue team debates, possibly to be broadcast live, to question the validity of climate change.

Mr. Pruitt has spoken personally with Mr. Trump about the idea, and the president expressed enthusiasm for it, according to people familiar with the conversations.

But the plan encountered widespread resistance within the administration from Mr. Kelly and other top officials, who regarded it as ill-conceived and politically risky, and when Mr. Pruitt sought to announce it last fall, they weighed in to stop him.

At a mid-December meeting set up by Mr. Kelly’s deputy, Rick Dearborn, to discuss the plan, Mr. Dearborn made it clear that his boss considered the idea “dead,” and not to be discussed further, ...
During that meeting, according to two attendees and a third person briefed on the discussion, administration officials and White House aides were in agreement that Mr. Pruitt’s idea was unwise. Their main concern was that a public debate on science — particularly on an issue as politically charged as the warming of the planet — could become a damaging spectacle, creating an unnecessary distraction from the steps the administration has taken to slash environmental regulations... The E.P.A. did not respond to requests for comment...

Tim Doyle, vice president of policy for the conservative business organization American Council for Capital Formation, said the companies he works with have not expressed any interest in a public forum to challenge climate change science.

“We definitely haven’t heard any of our members supporting the red team, blue team concept,” he said. “There’s been, if anything, radio silence about it.”

The idea for red team, blue team climate debates originated with Steven Koonin, a physicist at New York University... Mr. Koonin in April wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal calling for using the military-style exercise — in which one team attacks and another defends — to test the robustness of climate change science...

Mr. Koonin, in an interview, said he has “no dog in this fight” —... 

Mr. Pruitt planned to announce his red team, blue team debate in early November, according to a news release that was written but never issued. According to four people who have read the draft news release, the debates were to be organized by the E.P.A.’s science advisory board and not include other agencies... on Dec. 13, the White House convened senior officials to discuss the matter...

The takeaway, according to people in the room, was that every office within the White House was opposed to the idea. At one point, Mr. Dearborn said the notion of red team, blue team debates was “dead” and should not be mentioned again. “The chief doesn’t want it,” Mr. Dearborn said, referring to the White House chief of staff, according to one person who attended.

E.P.A. officials were taken aback, the person said... For the moment, even those who have championed the red team, blue team idea like Mr. Koonin are doubtful the debates will happen. “My optimism that we can get this done in a quality way is pretty low at this point,” Mr. Koonin said. “It needs to be a governmentwide exercise and there’s nobody that I know of that has picked up the ball in the White House.”