Friday, March 30, 2018

                         CLIMATE  OF  FEAR  DEEPENS  AS
               EASTER  BUNNY  SEEKS  POLITICAL  ASYLUM


The prospect of President Trump's summit meeting with  Kim  Jong Un  has again cast the shadow of
an orgy of lagomorphagy over the Pascal  season.

In the darkest days of Kim Jong Un's late father, Kim Jong   Il,  a  philanthropic German farmer dispatched the world's largest rabbit to starving North Korea with the aim of founding a breeding program to alleviate famine.
Herr Szmolinsky is hopping mad at the Nork bunny boilers

Alas, the  twenty kilogram  uberbunny  arrived as Kim Jong-il's 2007  birthday party approached, and it was spotted by the Dear Leader's culinary talent scouts.
While the embassy of the  Democratic People's Hermit Kingdom denied the  Guiding Sun Ray & Invincible and  Ever Triumphant General would ever authorize the termination of the Easter Bunny with extreme  prejudice,  his  personal chef later confessed  to the alleged lepicide, having combined the Prussian Giant Grey Rabbit with a giant pumpkin to create a supersized crunchy stir-fry. 

Between  Novochok doorknobs,  polonium tea, and  the  spectre  of Tuleremia genes spliced into ghost chilli kimchi, Secret Service food tasters may have a full plate if the summit comes off-- the rumored venue is Kazakhstan.
On the Internet, no one knows you're Steve Bannon in a bunny suit.




CALIFORNIA  STRICKEN WITH  MOCTEZUMA'S DROUGHT RELIEF


But Mexico has struggled to meet that agreement. Sewage infrastructure has not kept up with Tijuana's rapidly growing population and development... Waste from those areas flows untreated into the river system.
During heavy rains, inflows overwhelm the treatment plants... forcing upward of 140 million gallons of sewage to flow through the estuary and into the Pacific Ocean.
WILL TRUMP  BUILD THE WALL HERE ?
Those events have had an impact on the area's tourism-based economy, said Valerie Acevez, the president of the Imperial Beach Chamber of Commerce.

      WET  MARYLEBONE BATSMAN DECLARES VICTORY IN  
                                       CLIMATE  WARS  TEST

Game over   WUWT  / 

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Skeptics 1, Fanatics 0. That’s the final score...
 let me make it plain that my approach is to accept – for the sake of argument only – that everything in official climatology is true except where we have discovered errors. 

By this acceptance solum ad argumentum, we minimize the scope for futile objections that avoid the main point, and we focus the discussion on the grave errors we have found...

All definitions except that of temperature feedback are mainstream... 
Models do not implement feedback math explicitly. 
  •  climatology has not hitherto appreciated that the right-hand form of each equation is permissible
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WAIT A MINUTE, MONCKTON: 
THAT'S NOT CRICKET !
Input variables
Input variables are from official sources.
Mid-range industrial-era Charney sensitivityNow for the simplest proof of small Charney sensitivity.Net industrial-era manmade forcing to 2011 was 2.29 W m–2, implying industrial-era reference warming 2.29 / 3.2 = 0.72 K...That’s it. Charney sensitivity is less than half of the 3.3 K mid-range estimate in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 general-circulation models, distorted as they are by the long-standing misallocation of all 33 K of the difference between today’s temperature and emission temperature to greenhouse-gas forcings and consequent feedbacks.
Mid-range pre-industrial Charney sensitivity
To show how official climatology’s grave error arose, we shall study how it has been apportioning that 33 K difference between today’s temperature and emission temperature.
Lacis (2010) estimated albedo without greenhouse gases as 0.418, implying emission temperature [1364.625(1 – 0.418) / (4σ)]0.25 = 243.26 K...
Our corrected method finds transient-sensitivity f a lot less that Lacis’ 0.75. It is just 0.123... In practice, ice-melt would steadily reduce the ice-covered surface area, reducing the surface-albedo feedback.
 [ WATER  MELTS AT  243.26 K ?--- WHO KNEW ? ]
Certainty about uncertainties
What of the uncertainties in our result? Some of the official input values on which we have relied are subject to quite wide error margins... the interval of plausible sensitivities is nothing like as broad as the official interval, which I shall now demonstrate to be a hilarious fiction.
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I shall let Rud Istvan have the last word:
“This is not coincidental. The ‘best’ Charney sensitivity, whether calculated using the energy budget, or observed v. modeled via Bode’s feedback fraction f, is half of the ‘best estimate’ in IPCC (2007). I agree with Christopher Monckton of Brenchley. It’s game over.”

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

               PUSHING  UP  THE  DAISIES  IN  UKPEAGVIK

WIRED  reports:
Next month, a Silicon Valley engineer plans to head out on a snowmobile from Barrow, on the northern tip of Alaska, to sprinkle reflective sand on a frozen lake to try to stop it from melting. It’s part of a journey that began in 2006, after Leslie Field watched the climate change documentary “An Inconvenient Truth” and felt like she’d been “hit by a big fat truck.”...

Field, an inventor with 53 patents, began her research with buckets of cold water on the front deck of her home in Portola Valley, California, where she tested a variety of materials, including hay and daisies, to see how well they could prevent the sun’s rays from raising water temperatures. After settling on silica, she scaled up her experiments with trials on ice in California’s Sierra Nevada and on Canada’s Miquelon Lake.
Along the way, she raised funds from private donors, the largest contribution being a three-year, $1.3 million grant from a family foundation she heard about from a wealthy friend with whom she volunteered at her sons’ school. The money has helped pay for land-use permits and logistical support from Ukpeaġvik Iñupiat Corp., an indigenous-run organization in Barrow, Alaska.

 In May, Field and a small group of volunteers used an agricultural spreader, dragged by a snowmobile, to cover an area of ice the size of three football fields on an inland lake in Alaska..., she said, she needs to build credibility for her approach, which has yet to win respect from the so-called Geo-clique ,  a small group of North American scientists who advise politicians and large funders.
Among Field’s harshest critics is Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science’s Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University, who has collaborated with Keith and worked with Bill Gates. Caldeira dismissed Ice911 as unrealistic.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

      SENATOR INHOFE  ISN'T THE ONLY  CLIMATE  CRANK
                             WITH  A  SNOWBALL  PROBLEM


Judge in #ExxonKnew case accepts amicus brief exposing climatology’s grave error


By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Judge Alsup, in the California global warming trial, has accepted the amicus curiae brief from my eight distinguished colleagues and me. The brief now becomes an official part of the court documents. The judge may yet ask all parties to respond to it.
The initial reaction of the two California cities that brought the case against five oil companies, demanding that they should fork out billions to fend off sea-level rise, was to use the traditional totalitarian tactic of attacking our personal reputations. So much easier, that, than producing a scientific argument. The judge was unmoved.
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A simple feedback amplifier circuit from Bode (1945, page 31). Note that the input and output signals are not deltas but entire values. Numerous climate papers cite the feedback math in Bode as the basis for climate feedback analysis.
... On countless occasions, those who so often try to disrupt comment threads here with a melange of spiteful ad-hom attacks and half-baked pseudo-science (one of them even sent me a vile email offering gratuitous and profoundly offensive medical advice, though he was not a medic, a sure sign of extreme desperation on his part) found themselves attacking official climate science.
To these I felt like replying: “Comrade, do you realize you are criticizing the Party Line? Do you not know the penalty for that?” Instead, I suggested they should address their concerns to the climate clique, not to me...
When I was in Moscow recently, presenting our result to members of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Mojib Latif, an IPCC lead author, recommended a paper by several NASA authors, Lacis et al. (2010), who had run a general-circulation model in which they had removed all non-condensing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and had studied how the climate would evolve over 50 years.
Their conclusion was that after 50 years with no greenhouse gases the Earth’s albedo would have risen from today’s 0.293 to 0.418, and that mean surface temperature would have fallen from 288 K to 252 K, a drop of 36 K, of which 9 K, they imagined, was the loss of directly-forced warming from the non-condensing greenhouse gases and the remaining 27 K was the loss of feedback response to that directly-forced warming.
... How is it that emission temperature of 243.3 K induces a feedback response of only 8.7 K (or 0 K if, notwithstanding Lacis’ result, you think emission temperature cannot induce any feedback response at all), and yet that the 27-times-smaller 8.9 K direct warming from the presence of the naturally-occurring, non-condensing greenhouse gases induces as much as a 26.6 K feedback response?
It seems to have escaped Monckton that as water freezes at 273K, a wet planet, like Earth, falling well below that temperature will rapidly turn white as rain turns everywhere to snow and the seas freeze, and stay that way until tectonics or atmospheric chemistry reverse the runaway albedo shift.
In geophysics we call this the "Snowball Earth"  
It's about as controversial as continental drift.

    INDUR  GOLKANY,  INTERNATIONAL  SUIT  OF  MYSTERY


Dino Grandoni  & Paula Firozi of the Washington Post invite you to :
... not every member of the "deep state" is a Democrat. Career officials with conservative leanings ... are wielding newfound power in the Trump administration...

Through the George W. Bush and Barack Obama years, Goklany regularly worked with conservative think tanks skeptical of climate change, including publishing two books with the Cato Institute and speaking on panels held by the Heartland Institute. Now under Trump, he has repeatedly scrutinized the department’s climate research... Goklany marked up an Obama-era Park Service brochure on the effects of global warming... as “propaganda for a favored option.” A month later, Goklany was reviewing a draft of at least one U.S. Geological Survey paper on climate change ...

          Fred Singer  &      Sherman Idso                                                               Indur  Golkany                      
In 2013 Golkany made a cameo appearance in Beijing as the token governmental presence at a propaganda event in an empty hotel room paid for by the Heartland Institute, which weirdly styled as a:
Ceremony of Climate Change Reconsidered & the Workshop on 
International Climate Change Science Viewpoints 
a book launch staged to imply that the Chinese Academy of Sciences somehow endorsed NIPCC, a ludicrously low-brow pastiche of the IPCC  report that Heartland paid Fred Singer & Sherman Idso over 100K to write -- and internationally publicize.

Academic peer review never entered into it. Heartland dealt instead with the Academy's scientific vanity press, a pay-for-play subsidiary with an automated translation service  that will, for a price, print out bound copies of a passable Mandarin translation of any text, scientific or otherwise.

So when  Heartland President Joe Bast proclaimed :
“This is a historic moment in the global debate about climate change. The translation and publication of Climate Change Reconsidered By the prestigeous Chinese Academy of Sciences follows strong statements by the Russian Academy of Sciences dissenting from claims that global warming is either man-made or a crisis"
The Chinese Academy  angrily responded:
"The claim of the Heartland Institute about Chinese Academy of Science endorsement of its report is completely false. 

If the Heartland Institute does not withdraw its false news or refuse to apologize, all the consequences and liabilities should be borne by the Heartland Institute."


Monday, March 26, 2018

                  WHAT COLOR  IS  YOUR   DEEP  BLUE  SEA ?

Solar Power Nerdiness and the Terrifying Problem of Albedo...
When someone who cares about climate change gets solar panels on their roof, the temptation to keep looking at how much energy you are generating is virtually irresistible. After a long and dark “La Nina” winter in Montana, the first bright days of spring have lit those panels up. The wires are humming. It is exciting to think of all the free and clean electrons now coursing through our house.
Thinking about electrons, it turns out, can also generate some terrifying thoughts about albedo.
The first bright day in March was deeply satisfying. We exceeded by 27% our energy production from the best day last October, the month the panels first went up. ...Our panels look almost directly at a 2000 foot hill at the edge of town. The hill means it takes a little longer for sunlight to reach the panels in the morning. (Living in a mountain town, you have to work with what you have got!)
Panel GenerationOn a winter’s afternoon, however, that hill is our friend. The direction of our roofline means that we lose the afternoon sun much earlier than we would like. Fortunately, the geography is in our favor. When the hill is covered with snow, it reflects enough sunlight back onto our panels

This nerdiness about our panels got me thinking about albedo.
Albedo is a measure of the reflectivity of a surface. Generally speaking, the lighter the color of a surface the more energy it reflects. The darker the color, the more energy it absorbs. This is why many municipalities in hot climates recommend light-colored roof shingles.  The lighter color reflects heat off the roof and cuts down on the amount of cooling a house needs. On the other end of the spectrum, think about how warm a black road surface becomes on a hot day.
Kimberly VardemanAlbedo matters for our comfort level within cities but it matters a whole lot more when it is scaled up to the level of glaciers and ice caps. Lose a lot of ice from the poles and you have lost a whole lot of your ability to reflect heat back up into space. To make matters worse, in the Arctic, the ice is being replaced with the relatively dark colored ocean.
This is one of the feedback loops that makes today’s unfolding of climate change so worrying. A similar feedback mechanism exists on land. If snowfall decreases in the northern boreal forests, the white of the snow sitting on the trees is replaced by the dark color of the conifers’ needles and limbs. These absorb far more of the incoming solar energy than the snow. For the same reasons, the loss of glaciers in the mountains create hotter rocks and more evaporation of the water that remains.
It is not just that the planet is warming due to the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As it warms, the rate of warming is likely to increase due to the feedback loops that plague the thermodynamics of the climate system.
As a response to these sorts of threats, the discussion of using reflective surfaces to slow down climate warming has recently picked up steam. As mentioned in a previous post, residents of some alpine environments have already taken matters into their own hands. In Switzerland, the Rhône Glacier is now regularly covered with white fleece during the summer as a defense against the heat. Thinking along the same lines, Peruvian villagers have been whitewashing the rocks where glaciers used to sit to help preserve water for the growing season.
Christopher MichelMore ambitious than both of these are proposals to begin “Polar Geoengineering.” This means enhancing the albedo of polar regions in an effort to stabilize ice loss. A session at the American Geophysical Union’s annual conference last December was devoted to a number of these schemes. Suggestions include spraying seawater onto the thinning ice in wintertime using wind powered pumps, building giant underwater dams to keep out warm water at the tip of some of the world’s most important tidewater glaciers in Antarctica, and spreading reflective materials on arctic ice to stave off the sun as temperatures warm.
All of these proposals are highly speculative. Many of them would involve substantial investments in infrastructure. None of them would solve the root problem of warming temperatures. They might, their advocates suggest, provide some stop-gap relief while something serious is done about greenhouse gases. Albedo, they point out, is a big deal.
To me, the idea of messing with the ice in polar regions borders on the ridiculous. The lesson about the reflectivity of the nearby hillside, however, has made me realize how devastating these feedback loops might be. Losing a lot of snow and ice made a substantial difference to my solar panels.  One can only imagine what losing a lot of polar ice is going to mean for the planet as a whole.
It is not as if we needed another argument to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially and rapidly.  But if you want one, just remember how important it is to keep the planet’s albedo high..

Christopher J. Preston is at various times a professor of philosophy, a commercial fisherman, a gardener, an author, and a student of powerful emerging technologies. 
The most inflated title he ever possessed was Distinguished Visiting Fellow in the Ethics of the Anthropocene.


Saturday, March 24, 2018

  WHY  NO HONORARY  DOCTORATE  FROM  TRUMP U  TULSA ?

A DECADE AGO, ONE SPEAKER AT THE FIRST HEARTLAND CLIMATE CONFERENCE CAME TO GRIEF AFTER ADVERTISING HIMSELF AS A  DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY FROM CAMBRIDGE UNIVERITY , ( DPhil. Cant. ) WHEN  ALL HE HAD WAS A MAIL ORDER DIPLOMA (DipPhil ) FROM  ONE  MAIL ORDER  COURSE.



 ALSO  SPEAKING AT THAT CONFERENCE  WAS A MORE FAMIIAR FIGURE:
  
PREVIOUSLY  CONTENT WITH A THIRD CLASS CAMBRIDGE CLASSICS  DEGREE,  AND  A WELSH JOURNALISM DIPLOMA VISCOUNT MONCKTON SEEMS
TO  HAVE  RE- EMBROIDERED HIS RESUME FOR THIS  LEGAL BRIEF SUBMITTED TO  THE :

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT NORTHERN DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA SAN FRANCISCO DIVISION
THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
Plaintiff,
v.
BP P.L.C., et al.

Defendants.
Date: March 21, 2018 Time: 8:00 AM
Judge: Hon. William Alsup Location: Courtroom 8 on 19th Floor
BRIEF OF AMICI CURIAE:
page1image4202319248 page1image4202319520
(1) THE VISCOUNT MONCKTON OF BRENCHLEY,
  1. Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, author of some two dozen peer-reviewed papers and
  2. book chapters on climate sensitivity and mitigation economics, is a Master in Classical  Architecture in the University of Cambridge, where inter alia he studied the philosophy of science, logic and applied mathematics; 

    WHILE ANYONE ABLE  TO COAST THROUGH THE CAMBRIDGE  CLASSICAL TROPOS ON PUBLIC SCHOOL LATIN & GREEK CAN AUTOMATICALLY COLLECT A MAGISTER ARTIS   BY SENDING THE BURSAR FORTY QUID TO PAY FOR THE   EXTRA SHEEPSKIN,  THE  HAT TRICK MA IMPLIES NO MASTERY OF SCIENCE .

  3. BUT  DON'T DISPAIR --  FOR A REASONABLE FEE  YOU TOO  CAN BE A MASTER IN SOMETHING OR OTHER IN THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE  BY COMPLETING  A SEMINAR  OR CORRESPONDENCE COURSE OF YOUR CHOICE FILL IN SUBJECT HERE,  207 FLAVORS AVAILABLE 

    WANTING TO BUILD A  COTTAGE WITH A NEOCLASSICAL FACADE,  MONCKTON WISELY ENROLLED IN ONE  ON CLASSICAL ARCHITECTURE RATHER THAN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 

  4. TO  UPGRADE YOUR  MAGA HAT TO TO A DIY PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE, LOGIC & APPLIED  MATHEMATICS  MORTAR BOARD FREE OF CHARGE,  JUST TUNE IN TO THIS LECTURE FROM  MONCKTON  COLLEGE  OF  ALTERNATIVE  KNOWLEDGE:

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

             THE  GNOMES  OF  ZURICH  ONLY  DO  HURRICANES

Walking In A Winter Wonderland
Charles Oliver

District of Columbia Council member Trayon White Sr. seems to think the snowfall that recently hit the city wasn't just the last sign of winter. 
"Man, it just started snowing out of nowhere this morning, man. Y'all better pay attention to this climate control, man, this climate manipulation," 
White said in a video posted to his official Facebook page:

 "And D.C. keep talking about, 'We a resilient city.' And that's a model based off the Rothschilds controlling the climate to create natural disasters they can pay for to own the cities, man. Be careful."

REASON 20 March

Monday, March 19, 2018

                  AND SO, YOUR  HONOR, IN  ZERO  DIMENSIONS
        ONLY A PINHEAD  CAN  DANCE  ON  THE HEAD OF A PIN



Global warming on trial and the elementary error of physics that caused the global warming scare


By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
This will be a long posting,  but it will not be found uninteresting.
"Our amicus brief, lodged for us by a
good friend of the ever-valuable
Heartland Institute, concludes..
the oil corporations... 
should pay
the cost of their folly in accordance
with the ancient legal principle
 

volenti non fit injuria – "
Global warming on trial: Global warming goes on trial at 8.00 am this Wednesday, 21 March 2018, in Court 8 on the 19th floor of the Federal Building at 450 Golden Gate Avenue, San Francisco... 
His Honor Judge William Haskell Alsup...is no ordinary, custard-faced law graduate. Before he descended to the law (he wanted to help the civil rights movement), he earned a B.S. in engineering at Mississippi State University.
Rumors gather about great men. In hushed tones, those who talk of Judge Alsup say he taught himself the Java programming language so that he could decide the rangeCheck case. In fact, he is not familiar with Java... On the vast desk in his book-lined office sits a 2011-vintage Dell laptop, the only one he has that will still run qBasic. He has written programs for his ham-radio hobby, for the Mastermind board game, and for his wife’s bridge game.
The 18-year-old Bill Alsup at his ham radio console in Mississippi.
Hearing of this case, and of Bill Alsup’s starring role, I wondered what line of argument might convince a scientifically literate judge... that there is no cause for alarm about manmade global warming...
His Honor might decide – and all but a few irredentists would be compelled to agree – that global warming was not a problem and that the scare was over.
I have had the honor to lead a team of eminent climatological researchers who have been quietly but very busily investigating how much global warming we may cause, known as the “equilibrium-sensitivity” question.
We can now prove... by multiple empirical methods what we originally demonstrated by a theoretical method. The half-dozen methods all cohere in the same ballpark... my team had submitted a paper on our result to a leading climatological journal (by convention, I am bound not to say which until publication).
Therefore, I am at last free to reveal what we have discovered... There is indeed an elementary error of physics right at the heart of the models’ calculations  the abstract of the underlying paper. It is just 70 words long, for the error (though it has taken me a dozen years to run it to earth) really is stupendously elementary:
Abstract: In a dynamical system, even an unamplified input signal induces a response to any feedback. Hitherto, however, the large feedback response to emission temperature has been misattributed to warming from the naturally-occurring, non-condensing greenhouse gases. After correction, the theoretically-derived pre-industrial feedback fraction is demonstrated to cohere with the empirically-derived industrial-era value an order of magnitude below previous estimates, mandating reduction of projected Charney sensitivity from clip_image006 to clip_image008.
Equations: To understand the argument that follows, we shall need three equations.
The zero-dimensional-model equation (1) says that equilibrium sensitivity or final warming ΔTeq is the ratio of reference sensitivity or initial warming ΔTref to (1 – f ), where is the feedback fraction, i.e., the fraction of ΔTeq represented by the feedback response ΔT(ref) to ΔTref. The entire difference between reference and equilibrium sensitivity is accounted for by the feedback response ΔT(ref) (the bracketed subscript indicates a feedback response).
ΔTeq = ΔTref / (1 – f ). (1)
The zero-dimensional model is not explicitly used in general-circulation models. 
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... atmospheric dynamics requires that there must be a tropical mid-troposphere “hot spot” [I had the honor to name it], where the warming rate should be twice or thrice that at the tropical surface. However, the “hot spot” is not observed in reality (see below), except in one suspect dataset that Dr Fred Singer scrutinized some years ago and determined to be defective.
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The model-predicted “hot spot” is not observed in reality (Karl et al. 2006).
 Even after we had built and operated our own test rig – as far as we know, this is the first time anyone has tried to test climatological feedback theory empirically rather than simply modeling it we were not satisfied that anything other than tests performed under rigorous conditions at a government laboratory would be found widely acceptable.
Accordingly.. I commissioned a government laboratory to carry out the experiments...However, a problem at once arose  So very small were the feedback responses predicted ... the presence of the operator in the same room as the test rig tended to bias the results...
I worked for months with a patient and amiable scientist at the government laboratory... 
When the laboratory reported, I sent it a copy of our draft paper, in which the lab results were mentioned. The laboratory panicked and said we were not allowed to use its report.
With these results from a national laboratory (we cannot even mention which country it was in) we were at last content that we had established our conclusion with sufficient rigor...
We do not believe in magic.